Three key takeaways

  1. Long-term government bond yields in the US and Japan peaked in early October and have eased since, while the gap between French and German yields has stayed wide.
  2. The episode shows where each economy is exposed: Japan to a slow return of its own capital, France to a budget the market doubts, Brazil to a government's fiscal credibility, and Africa to the price of dollar funding.
  3. Our market outlook is neutral for global yields, cautious on French sovereign debt until the 17 November budget vote and on Brazilian assets until a fiscal plan appears, and mixed across African equities and credit. This note is a market outlook and is not investment advice.

Duration, fiscal credibility, and the cost of capital

This weekend, we examine how fiscal credibility, duration dynamics, and the cost of capital are reshaping market conditions across Japan, France, Brazil, and Africa.

Supporting materials

Heuresis_Weekend_Thoughts_1st November 2026.pdf826 KB

Sources, methodology & disclosures

  • Heuresis Capital Research

This report has been prepared by Fuhad Adio, Chimere Nwosu-Igbo and Andrea Bolesina under the Heuresis Capital Research name, an independent research project that is not yet a legal entity. It is not authorised or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does not provide investment services. This report is published for informational and educational purposes and is intended for professional and institutional readers only. It does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, financial instrument or asset class, and it does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any recipient. Readers should conduct their own analysis and seek independent advice before taking any decision. The views expressed are those of the authors as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Scenarios, simulations and forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and are not forecasts. Past performance is not indicative of future results. As of the report date, the authors do not hold positions in the issuers named in this report. Third-party data are used under the terms of their respective providers and remain subject to their rights. This report may be shared in its complete and unaltered form with authors authorization. Charts and excerpts may be quoted with attribution to Heuresis Capital Research.